Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Hillary keeps going

Hillary wins by 10 points in Pennsylvania and the Democratic campaign will continue. Howard Dean was looking, recently, for a way to kill her, and many other prominent dems seem to be souring on her.

I still like her better than Obama. As negative as she's gone, I still think the two dirtiest tricks of the campaign were Mitt Romney claiming he could bring the auto industry back to Michigan and the Obama campaign's attempt to stick a "racist" label on Bill Clinton.

Hillary's point that she will have to pitch to uncommitted superdelegates is that Obama can't win. Reverend Wright makes him polarizing, the "bitter" debacle makes him seem aloof and elitist. And he has been unable to close the deal in the big states.

One key point is that if Clinton gets the nomination and offers Obama the VP job, he's likely to take it. It sets him up as heir to the throne in 2016. If he gets the nomination, she may be back in four years if he loses, but an Obama victory in November probably finishes her presidential aspirations. John McCain and Bob Dole can be old and run for President, but trying to make that sale as a 68 year-old woman is going to be extremely hard.

Joe Klein has suggested a possible brokered convention nominating Al Gore. It's an interesting possibility, since it will be difficult to unite the party behind Obama or Clinton now, and McCain is trying hard to poach Democratic voters. I think Gore still wants to be President, despite his protestations otherwise, and I think he sat this one out as a courtesy to the Clintons. If McCain wins, I think he will run in 2012, and if the convention deadlocks, I think he's the go-to compromise candidate.

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